SBI cuts FY22 GDP growth to 10.4%
The total loss due to the partial lockdowns and night curfews has been estimated at Rs 1.5 lakh crore, of which Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan account for 80%. Maharashtra alone accounts for 54% of the total losses.
“Maharashtra has put up a stringent lockdown among all states. Being economically biggest and most industrialised state in India, this lockdown will have a huge impact on growth,” Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI, said in his report.
Several economists and investment banks have trimmed India’s growth estimates for 2021-22 given the sharp surge in Covid infections.
The report said the current losses in Maharashtra are estimated at nearly Rs 82,000 crore, which will definitely increase if restrictions are further increased. “Given that R(0) is quite low for Maharashtra, it may be pertinent to ask that how much the lockdown will slow down the speed of infections, but for beefing up health infrastructure,” said Ghosh.
The report also said that migration of labour is continuing unabated. According to the data provided by Western Railways (for the period of April 1-12), almost 4.3 lakh people have returned to the states like UP, WB, Bihar, Assam and Odisha from Maharashtra.
Of this, around 3.2 lakh reverse migrated to UP and Bihar alone. “From Central Railways our estimate indicates that around 4.7 lakh reverse migrated to northern and eastern states from Maharashtra,” it said.